October 14, 2014. A break point in the stock market occurred on 9/25/2014. This type of break has not been seen since the August 2011 downturn. Extreme caution is advised--this could be the "big one."
FFC has been forecasting the possibility of a 25-40% drop in the stock markets. There is strong evidence of an 8.5 year cycle in the stock market that peaked in April 2014. Other smaller cycles with higher frequencies have also peaked and are heading down. When all of these cycles are added together, the prospects over the next two years look rather daunting.
Also, investors and traders should not underestimate the potential economic impact and spread of fear with the spread of ebola outside of Africa. As fear spreads, key indicators to monitor are the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar, dropping Treasury yields, and falling crude oil prices.
The second estimate of 2Q 2014 U.S. GDP puts growth at +4.6%, annualized, or +2.6% year-over-year. 2Q GDP growth was boosted by an unexpected jump in sales of durable goods (lead by automobiles) and a nice increase in private fixed investment (+10.4%, annualized). By our own estimates of real economic growth, the U.S. economy is growing at +2.6% year-over-year.
Current Economic Indicators
|October 24, 2014 (Close of Day)|
|US GDP Growth, %||2.59|
|US Inflation Rate, %||1.66|
|US Unemployment Rate, %||5.9|
|Gold Price, $/oz||1,232.75|
|WTI Oil Price, $/bbl||81.30|
|US 10 Yr Treasury, %||2.29|