We have seen a number of significant moves in various indicators over the last 3 months. The moves down in longer term treasury yields, the significant rise in the U.S. dollar and the collapse in the price of oil are all patterns witnessed in the last half of 2008. At that time, the U.S. and global economies were in a recession.
So far, the only indicator that has failed to match the patterns of 2H2008 is the stock market. In 2014, the U.S. small and mid cap indexes trended sideways, signalling a potential top to come in the larger cap indexes such as the S&P 500 and the DJIA.
Recently, there have been 2 significant drops in the S&P 500: one in October and another in December. Today's drop (1/5/2015) is the third, and possibly last, signal the stock market may give before heading into a bear market in 2015.
Current Economic Indicators
|January 29, 2015 (Close of Day)|
|US GDP Growth, %||2.70|
|US Inflation Rate, %||0.76|
|US Unemployment Rate, %||5.6|
|Gold Price, $/oz||1,268.75|
|WTI Oil Price, $/bbl||44.50|
|US 10 Yr Treasury, %||1.77|