Independent.  Objective.  Accurate.

2nd Quarter 2016 U.S. GDP

The 2nd Quarter 2016 real GDP growth rate came in at +1.2% year-over-year.  FFC's estimate of the 2nd quarter's U.S. economic growth is -0.5% year-over-year.

June 24th, 2016

Again, all of the major stock markets around the world sold off.  This is yet more proof that all of the stock markets around the world are inter-connected.  When they go, there is no other stock market to run and hide.

U.S. Recession Indicator

A fairly decent indicator of U.S. recessions is the sales of heavy trucks.  The graph below shows U.S. heavy truck sales by units (not dollars) from January 1967 to August 2016.  The grey vertical bars are periods of recessions.

The problem is the trend at the far right, which is where we are now.  This indicator shows the U.S. is either currently in a recession (FFC's view) or is heading into one.

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales

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S&P 500 Forecast

S&P 500 Stock Market Chart with Forecast
Current Economic Indicators
September 23, 2016 (Close of Day)
Indicator Value
S&P 500 2,164.69
US GDP Growth, % 1.20
US Inflation Rate, % 1.06
US Unemployment Rate, % 4.9
Gold Price, $/oz 1,338.65
WTI Oil Price, $/bbl 44.48
US 10 Yr Treasury, % 1.62

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