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Friday, July 29

Friday is the big day when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the 2nd Quarter 2016 GDP numbers.  The real GDP growth rate will probably come in at a politically correct 2-2.5% rate.  However, it isn't the 2Q16 GDP numbers that are important.   It is the revisions to the 2013-2016 numbers that are important.

The revisions to the prior GDP numbers should show lower real GDP growth than previously reported.  FFC's position is that since 2011, the U.S. economy has NOT grown.  Even the feeble 2% growth rates previously claimed by the Feds are too high.

June 24th, 2016

Again, all of the major stock markets around the world sold off.  This is yet more proof that all of the stock markets around the world are inter-connected.  When they go, there is no other stock market to run and hide.

1st Quarter 2016 U.S. GDP

The first quarter 2016 U.S. real GDP growth rate came in at 1.1% annualized growth, or (the more appropriate) 2.09% year-over-year growth.  Our estimate of the 1st quarter 2016 real economic growth is -2.2% year-over-year.

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S&P 500 Forecast

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Current Economic Indicators
July 29, 2016 (Close of Day)
Indicator Value
S&P 500 2,173.60
US GDP Growth, % 1.23
US Inflation Rate, % 1.01
US Unemployment Rate, % 4.9
Gold Price, $/oz 1,342.00
WTI Oil Price, $/bbl 41.60
US 10 Yr Treasury, % 1.46