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Economic Outlook
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Current Inflation Rates

As of July 2014, the current inflation rate is +1.99% based on the consumer price index.  The "core" inflation rate (CPI less food and energy) is +1.86% while the wholesale inflation rate based on the PPI is running at +1.76%.  The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is +1.60% (through June 2014).  All of these inflation measures imply inflation is low and the Federal Reserve can keep in place their easy money policies, for now.

2Q 2014 U.S. GDP

The second quarter 2014 U.S. GDP grew at +3.9%, annualized, or +2.4% year-over-year.  2Q 2014 GDP growth was boosted by an unexpected jump in sales of durable goods and a higher than expected increase in business inventories.  Since this is the first estimate, we expect the 2Q GDP growth to come down in subsequent estimates.

New, Single Family Home Sales

FFC is forecasting sales of new, single family homes in the U.S. for 2014 will be 440 thousand homes.  This is a projected 2.6% increase over the 429 thousand homes sold in 2013.  For reference, here is the historical data for new home sales.

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Current Economic Indicators

August 27, 2014 (Close of Day)

Indicator

Value

S&P 500 2,000.12
US GDP Growth, % +3.90
US Inflation Rate, % 1.99
US Unemployment Rate, % 6.2
Gold Price, $/oz 1282.75
WTI Oil Price, $/bbl 93.88
US 10 Yr Treasury, % 2.37