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Economic Outlook and Price Forecasts

U.S. 2015 Real Economic Growth

FFC's estimate for 2015 U.S. real economic growth is -0.8%, well below the currently reported +1.8% real GDP growth.

The discrepancy comes from an over-estimated U.S. nominal GDP and under-estimated GDP inflation.  Contrary to the U.S. federal government's numbers, the U.S. economy is not doing well.

What Stock Markets Predict What

Here is an interesting piece of analysis showing how different stock markets around the world influence or predict other stock markets.

4th Quarter 2015 GDP Growth

4Q2015 Real GDP growth is 1.8% year/year or 0.7% annualized quarterly growth.

S&P 500 Forecast

S&P 500 Stock Market Chart with Forecast

Top 10 Predictions Based on January 2016 Traffic

Current Economic Indicators
February 11, 2016 (Close of Day)
Indicator Value
S&P 500 1,829.08
US GDP Growth, % 1.80
US Inflation Rate, % 0.73
US Unemployment Rate, % 4.9
Gold Price, $/oz 1,241.00
WTI Oil Price, $/bbl 26.21
US 10 Yr Treasury, % 1.63