The construction and sales of single family homes in the U.S. seems to be setting up a sideways trend. New single family homes are being built at a level rate of 630 thousand units per year while housing inventories are starting to rise. However, home prices continue to increase at about 5% per year.
As of July 2014, the current inflation rate is +1.99% based on the consumer price index. The "core" inflation rate (CPI less food and energy) is +1.86% while the wholesale inflation rate based on the PPI is running at +1.76%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is +1.56%. All of these inflation measures imply inflation is low and the Federal Reserve can keep in place their easy money policies, for now.
The second estimate of 2Q 2014 U.S. GDP puts growth at +4.2%, annualized, or +2.5% year-over-year. 2Q GDP growth was boosted by an unexpected jump in sales of durable goods (lead by automobiles) and a nice increase in private fixed investment (+9.1%, annualized). By our own estimates of real economic growth, the U.S. economy is growing at +2.6% year-over-year.
Current Economic Indicators
|September 15, 2014 (Close of Day)|
|US GDP Growth, %||+4.12|
|US Inflation Rate, %||1.99|
|US Unemployment Rate, %||6.1|
|Gold Price, $/oz||1234.25|
|WTI Oil Price, $/bbl||92.92|
|US 10 Yr Treasury, %||2.60|