The 2nd Quarter 2016 real GDP growth rate came in at +1.3% year-over-year. FFC's estimate of the 2nd quarter's U.S. economic growth is -0.5% year-over-year.
An estimate of 3rd Quarter 2016 U.S. real economic growth is +0.0%. Yes, U.S. economic growth is essentially flat.
A fairly decent indicator of U.S. recessions is the sales of heavy trucks. The graph below shows U.S. heavy truck sales by units (not dollars) from January 1967 to August 2016. The grey vertical bars are periods of recessions.
The problem is the trend at the far right, which is where we are now. This indicator shows the U.S. is either currently in a recession (FFC's view) or is heading into one.
|October 27, 2016 (Close of Day)|
|US GDP Growth, %||1.28|
|US Inflation Rate, %||1.46|
|US Unemployment Rate, %||5.0|
|Gold Price, $/oz||1,266.25|
|WTI Oil Price, $/bbl||49.68|
|US 10 Yr Treasury, %||1.85|