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Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

You might ask yourself "so what?"  Why does the inventory to sales ratio matter?  Well, it turns out the inventory to sales ratio is a good proxy for real economic recessions.  When the IS ratio goes above trend, as it did in 2001, 2009 and 2015, the U.S. economy is in a recession.

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

Ratio Total Business Inventory to Total Business Sales. Seasonally Adjusted.

Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error
0 Nov 2019 1.39 ±0.00
1 Dec 2019 1.38 ±0.0083
2 Jan 2020 1.39 ±0.01
3 Feb 2020 1.39 ±0.012
4 Mar 2020 1.41 ±0.012
5 Apr 2020 1.40 ±0.013
6 May 2020 1.39 ±0.014
7 Jun 2020 1.38 ±0.014
8 Jul 2020 1.38 ±0.015

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Chart of U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio with Current Outlook.

Chart of Inventory to Sales Ratio with Forecast

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Current Economic Indicators
February 19, 2020
Indicator Value
S&P 500 3386.15
U.S. GDP Growth, % 2.32
U.S. Inflation Rate, % 2.49
Gold Price, $/oz t 1611.30
Crude Oil Futures, $/bbl 53.50
U.S. 10 Year Treasury, % 1.56

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