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Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

You might ask yourself "so what?"  Why does the inventory to sales ratio matter?  Well, it turns out the inventory to sales ratio is a good proxy for real economic recessions.  When the IS ratio goes above trend, as it did in 2001, 2009 and 2015, the U.S. economy is in a recession.

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

Ratio Total Business Inventory to Total Business Sales. Seasonally Adjusted.

Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error
0 Sep 2020 1.32 ±0.00
1 Oct 2020 1.33 ±0.0083
2 Nov 2020 1.34 ±0.01
3 Dec 2020 1.34 ±0.012
4 Jan 2021 1.33 ±0.012
5 Feb 2021 1.32 ±0.013
6 Mar 2021 1.33 ±0.014
7 Apr 2021 1.34 ±0.014
8 May 2021 1.34 ±0.015

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Chart of U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio with Current Outlook.

Chart of Inventory to Sales Ratio with Forecast

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Current Economic Indicators
November 25, 2020
Indicator Value
S&P 500 3629.65
U.S. GDP Growth, YoY % -2.92
U.S. Inflation Rate, % 1.16
Gold Price, $/oz-t 1806.00
Crude Oil Futures, $/bbl 45.80
U.S. 10 Year Treasury, % 0.88

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