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You might ask yourself "so what?" Why does the inventory to sales ratio matter? Well, it turns out the inventory to sales ratio is a good proxy for real economic recessions. When the IS ratio goes above trend, as it did in 2001, 2009 and 2015, the U.S. economy is in a recession.
Month | Date | Forecast Value | Avg Error |
---|---|---|---|
0 | Sep 2024 | 1.38 | ±0.00 |
1 | Oct 2024 | 1.38 | ±0.0083 |
2 | Nov 2024 | 1.39 | ±0.01 |
3 | Dec 2024 | 1.41 | ±0.012 |
4 | Jan 2025 | 1.45 | ±0.012 |
5 | Feb 2025 | 1.48 | ±0.013 |
6 | Mar 2025 | 1.52 | ±0.014 |
7 | Apr 2025 | 1.53 | ±0.014 |
8 | May 2025 | 1.55 | ±0.015 |
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November 29, 2024 | |
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
S&P 500 | 6032.38 |
U.S. GDP Growth, YoY % | 2.66 |
U.S. Inflation Rate, % | 2.60 |
Gold Price, $/oz-t | 2651.05 |
Crude Oil Futures, $/bbl | 68.15 |
U.S. 10 Year Treasury, % | 4.18 |
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