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Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

You might ask yourself "so what?"  Why does the inventory to sales ratio matter?  Well, it turns out the inventory to sales ratio is a good proxy for real economic recessions.  When the IS ratio goes above trend, as it did in 2001, 2009 and 2015, the U.S. economy is in a recession.

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

Ratio Total Business Inventory to Total Business Sales. Seasonally Adjusted.

Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error
0 Jul 2021 1.25 ±0.00
1 Aug 2021 1.24 ±0.0083
2 Sep 2021 1.23 ±0.01
3 Oct 2021 1.24 ±0.012
4 Nov 2021 1.25 ±0.012
5 Dec 2021 1.24 ±0.013
6 Jan 2022 1.26 ±0.014
7 Feb 2022 1.25 ±0.014
8 Mar 2022 1.26 ±0.015

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Chart of U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio with Current Outlook.

Chart of Inventory to Sales Ratio with Forecast

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Current Economic Indicators
October 26, 2021
Indicator Value
S&P 500 4574.79
U.S. GDP Growth, YoY % 12.23
U.S. Inflation Rate, % 5.39
Gold Price, $/oz-t 1794.60
Crude Oil Futures, $/bbl 84.65
U.S. 10 Year Treasury, % 1.63

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