10 Year Treasury Notes T-Bond Yield Forecast over the next Six Month. 

10 Year T-Note Forecast

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Correlation Coefficient

Long Range Forecasts

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What is the Correlation Coefficient?

The correlation coefficient, a concept from statistics, is a measure of how well trends in the predicted values follow trends in the actual values.  It is a measure of how well the predicted values from a forecast model "fit" with real-life data.

The correlation coefficient is a number between 0 and 1.  If there is no relationship between the predicted values and the actual values, the correlation coefficient is 0 or very low (the predicted values are no better than random numbers).   As the strength of the relationship between the predicted values and actual values increases, so does the correlation coefficient.  A perfect fit gives a coefficient of 1.0.  Thus the higher the correlation coefficient, the better.

Current Interest Rates
July 18, 2019
Indicator Rate, %
Prime Rate 5.50
30 Year Treasury Bond 2.56
10 Year Treasury Note 2.04
91 Day Treasury Bill 2.05
Fed Funds 2.41
3 Month LIBOR (USD) 2.30
30 Year Mortgage Rate 3.81

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